Gas Supply and Demand Outlook: A Positive Outlook for Q2 2026
The Australian government has announced a positive outlook for the gas supply and demand situation in the country's east coast market for the second quarter of 2026. This decision was based on a comprehensive assessment of various factors, ensuring a stable and reliable energy supply for the region.
The key considerations included:
- ACCC's Gas Inquiry Interim Report (December 2025): The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission's (ACCC) report provides valuable insights into the gas market. It forecasts a surplus of 15PJ to a shortfall of 8PJ in the east coast market for the quarter. This represents a slight improvement from the previous September forecast, indicating a more balanced supply and demand scenario.
- AEMO and Government Advice: The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and the Western Australian and Northern Territory Governments have provided crucial advice on gas supply and demand outlooks. They predict sufficient gas in storage and surplus production in Queensland, which is essential for managing potential risks and ensuring a stable supply.
- Positive Outlook from Western Australia and the Northern Territory: The governments of Western Australia and the Northern Territory have also confirmed positive outlooks in their respective regions, further reinforcing the overall positive outlook for the country.
The domestic gas market is expected to remain resilient against external factors, such as global price shocks, ensuring a stable supply for local consumers.
In the event of a localized gas supply emergency or shortfall, the AEMO has the authority to take action. This includes directing gas flows to ensure a swift response and maintain stability. As a result, the government is confident in the following key points:
- Sufficient Supply for East Coast Market: Australia's east coast gas market will have an adequate supply to meet consumer demands from April to June 2026.
- No Reduction in Gas Exports: Domestic demand can be met without compromising gas exports, ensuring a balanced approach to energy distribution.
- Mitigation Strategies in Place: There are robust mitigation strategies in place to address any nationwide supply-demand risks during the quarter, providing an extra layer of security for the energy sector.
